1.8 C
Thursday, December 2, 2021

Climate commitments are well below the 1.5°C target

In battle In response to climate change, there is one figure that stands out more than others: 1.5 degrees Celsius. The effects of world warming may be difficult for you to understand, but the difference between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius is huge. To give an example: at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we are talking about losing 70% of coral reefs; at 2 degrees Celsius, corals will disappear. At 1.5 degrees Celsius, 1 out of every 100 Arctic summers will be ice-free; at 2 degrees Celsius, it is one-tenth.

As the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow is now approaching the finish line, one of the biggest questions it needs to answer is whether it has maintained its 1.5 degrees Celsius target.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has Urge countries “Go all out in the next few days to keep 1.5 alive.” And one statement From the “Ambitious Coalition”, calling on all countries to make more ambitious climate commitments at 1.5 degrees Celsius before COP27 41 supporting countries now, Including the United States.

For a country like the Marshall Islands, Facing obliteration From the perspective of climate change, if emissions are not controlled, then the idea of ​​not increasing short-term climate commitments will not work. On November 10th, COP26 Marshall Islands Climate Envoy Tina Stege stated: “We must come back to ensure that the Nationally Determined Contribution is consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius.” Until these goals are delivered. “

With all the mixed messages sent by COP26, it is difficult to interpret how close we are to achieving the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.Analysis published last week International Energy Agency (IEA) It is estimated that the climate commitments made so far at COP26 may help limit global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.But a single analyze According to the findings from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the current commitments add up to 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Actual policies and actions have put the world on a trajectory of massive warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius. This is a way for the head of the United Nations, Antonio Antonio. Guterres called it “catastrophic.” The real-world difference between 1.8 degrees Celsius and 2.7 degrees Celsius will be huge.

what happened?The problem is that these are predict, By their very nature, they must make certain assumptions about what will happen. The IEA’s assessment assumes that all long-term net-zero commitments will be met and incorporates top-level commitments made last week, such as One is to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030.

But all of these commitments are currently not included in the more formal and shorter-term climate commitments that countries have made to the United Nations, that is, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).

Niklas Höhne, a partner at the New Climate Institute and co-author of the CAT analysis, said that when CAT made the same assumptions as the IEA, it actually came up with the same numbers. “We also have a very optimistic scenario, which will drop to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, but we basically warn that this is unlikely to happen,” he said. “Countries do not have enough short-term policies to push themselves on the path to achieving the net-zero goal. The short-term is the problem.”

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