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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

The fiasco of Virginia governor’s race raises concerns among Democrats


Last week, when she campaigned for Democratic Virginia governor candidate Terry McAuliffe, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told voters that the outcome of the election would be far beyond where they are. State.

“What happens in Virginia will largely determine what will happen in 2022, 2024 and beyond,” she told the crowd. Now, less than a week later, Democrats in Washington and across the United States are worried that Harris is right.

Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin is the former co-CEO of private equity group Carlyle. He won Virginia by two points, ahead of Democratic veteran and former Governor McAuliffe (McAuliffe). Although opinion polls showed fierce competition, the result was a miserable defeat in the state where Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 10 percentage points a year ago.

The second governorship race held in New Jersey on Wednesday was still too close-it was arguably a more disturbing result for Democrats, who believed that the current president there, Phil Murphy, would easily win re-election and opposed it. His Republican opponent Jack Catarelli. Biden leads New Jersey by 16 percentage points in 2020.

“In the final analysis, it has something to do with Biden,” said Kyle Kondik of the Nonpartisan Political Center at the University of Virginia. “If the political environment is like this next year, you would expect the Republican Party to win the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

As a result, before next year’s midterm elections, the president’s party painted a frustrating picture, when Congress’ control will be contested. Analysts said that if there is another move against the Democrats next year, they will lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and they will maintain the advantage with a small advantage.

This will make it very unlikely that the president will pass legislation when he enters the second half of his four-year term and considers running for re-election in 2024.

The results in Virginia and New Jersey—and some of the Democratic Party’s losses in other local elections—show that the party’s difficulty in retaining voters is part of the national trend.

Due to public dissatisfaction with rising consumer prices, the lingering Covid-19 pandemic, and his handling of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the president’s approval rating has dropped to a low point.

At the same time, on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are still mired in a protracted internal war over Biden’s two-pronged legislative agenda: a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package and a revised $1.75 trillion. The “Rebuild Better” program to invest in childcare, public health care, and climate initiatives.

Tuesday’s results raised concerns in Congress about whether moderate Democrats would be cautious about supporting larger bills in the face of a difficult mid-term cycle. But House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday that she intends to continue voting on the bill after a series of committee hearings and further negotiations with Senate lawmakers.

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Biden did not immediately comment on the “non-annual” election results. These results gradually became apparent when he returned to Washington on Air Force One on Tuesday night a week after his G20 meeting in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow. Young King announced his victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning, just as the U.S. television network showed a split-screen image of Biden walking down the plane with his head down.

“focus [for Democrats] We need to address public concerns and increase Biden’s approval rating,” Condick said. “How did you do it? easy to say, hard to do. “

In Virginia, the vote for the governor’s race exceeded a record 3 million votes. The results showed that the Republican rural areas of the state had particularly high turnouts, while the Democratic-leaning areas had relatively low turnouts, such as the wealthy suburbs around Washington, DC. The results—reflected in other campaigns across the country—show that there is a “passion gap” between enthusiastic Republican voters and untrained Democrats.

Republican polling expert Whit Ayres said: “After the president’s victory, the winning party will be complacent, and the losing party will be angry.” “The turnout rate of those who voted for Trump in 2020 is higher than that of those who voted in 2020. Biden’s people are much taller.”

“The Democrats seem to think that just because they voted to remove Trump in 2020, their job is complete. That’s just a deposit,” said Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic strategist based in Boston. She added that instead of reacting and “defending” to Republican messages, Democrats need to better explain to voters what they will offer them.

“Democrats need to start to understand this,” Marsh said. “Offensive, ruthless, and hard work, otherwise the Democratic Party will lose a lot of elections in a year.”

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Republicans celebrated the election results on Wednesday, believing that Youngkin provided their party with a midterm script. The political novice walked a tightrope to attract a base of loyal Trump supporters, while also digging out independents who avoided the former president.

His campaign highlighted the basic issues of the Republican Party, such as lowering taxes and increasing law enforcement funding, but in the last few weeks it also focused on education policy, from charter schools to his party’s push to ban the teaching of critical racial theories in schools.

Although critical racial theory was not part of the state curriculum, Yang Jin’s popularity rose after McAuliffe stated in a television debate that his parents should not comment on the content of classroom teaching.

At the same time, Republicans said they benefited from the widespread rejection of left-wing progressive politics by voters. On Tuesday night, the referendum to disband the police force in Minneapolis, Minnesota, failed. In Buffalo, New York, a Democratic candidate defeated a socialist candidate by 17 points in the mayoral race. .

Republican polling expert Ayres said: “Republicans campaigning on issues that concern people who distance themselves from Donald Trump can win in a post-Trump era in states that tend to favor Democrats.” “Most voters, even if It’s in the northern cities, and they are all not far from the center, not the far left.”

Swamp notes

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